Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar predictions, Sep 04, 2026

Yuriy Borshchenko

3 weeks ago

ATP US Open, on Friday, 11:00 am ET

Score, Highlights

Short Preview

As the ATP US Open approaches, tennis fans will be keenly focused on the matchup between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar on September 4, 2026. The match will unfold in front of a home crowd, offering Michelsen a psychological advantage as he looks to capitalize on recent form, having won 3 of his last 5 matches.

In contrast, Aguilar enters the contest with a notable performance streak, winning 4 of his last 5 matches, reflecting his growing momentum. This match is pivotal for both players; Michelsen’s strong baseline game will be essential in countering Aguilar’s aggressive style, which has proven effective in recent tournaments.

Current bookmakers’ odds favor Michelsen at 1.68 compared to Aguilar’s 2.13, which translates to a slight edge for the home player. A model prediction indicates a 55% likelihood of a Michelsen win and a 45% chance for Aguilar, underscoring the competitive nature of this encounter. The predicted final score suggests a decisive 3:0 in favor of Michelsen, yet as any tennis aficionado knows, upsets are always possible in this unpredictable sport. Fans can expect an engaging battle as both players vie for victory.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-09-02T21:52:03+00:00.

Michelsen
63.3%

Merida Aguilar
36.7%

Prediction (the most likely score): 3:0

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Betting Odds

	1	X	2
	1.44		2.75
	1.57		2.40
	1.53		2.58
	1.44		2.55
	1.56		2.39
	1.45		2.55

Latest Results

02.09.26 Brandon Nakashima – Alex Michelsen – 0:3
31.08.26 Alex Michelsen – Federico Cina – 3:0
16.08.26 Taylor Harry Fritz – Alex Michelsen – 2:0
14.08.26 Alex Michelsen – Jesper De Jong – 2:0
07.08.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Alex Michelsen – 2:1

02.09.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Andrey Rublev – 3:1
30.08.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Marton Fucsovics – 3:0
18.08.26 Taylor Harry Fritz – Daniel Merida Aguilar – 2:0
16.08.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Zizou Bergs – 2:0
14.08.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Marin Cilic – 2:1

Facts

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 46. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 39.

In recent matches, Michelsen has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merida Aguilar is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Michelsen could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Michelsen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Latest Head To Head

07.08.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Alex Michelsen – 2:1
05.03.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Alex Michelsen – 0:2

Standings

Draw

Singles – Main

1/64-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Sonego L.	3 : 2
2	Halys Q.	Diaz Acosta F.	3 : 1
3	Dimitrov G. (Q)	Popyrin A.	1 : 3
4	Hanfmann Y.	Tabilo A. (25)	1 : 3
5	Darderi L. (21)	Wendelken H. (Q)	3 : 1
6	Svrcina D. (Q)	Royer V.	3 : 2
7	Sweeny D. (WC)	Moutet C. (RET.)	2 : 0
8	Fery A.	Musetti L. (13)	0 : 3
9	Jodar R. (12)	Bu Y. (LL)	0 : 3
10	Marozsan F.	Zheng M. (WC)	0 : 3
11	Svajda Z.	Altmaier D.	3 : 1
12	Cerundolo J. M.	Gea A. (LL)	2 : 3
13	Bergs Z. (31)	Taberner C.	3 : 1
14	De Jong J.	Passaro F. (Q)	3 : 2
15	Choinski J.	Van De Zandschulp B.	0 : 3
16	Guerrieri A. (Q)	De Minaur A. (6)	0 : 3
17	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)	Hijikata R.	3 : 1
18	Burruchaga R. A.	Khachanov K.	0 : 3
19	Molcan A.	Bonzi B.	1 : 3
20	Giron M.	Buse I. (32)	2 : 3
21	Mensik J. (17)	Mochizuki S. (LL)	3 : 0
22	Rodionov J. (Q)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 0
23	Vallejo D.	Monfils G. (WC)	1 : 3
24	Borges N.	Tien L. (14)	0 : 3
25	Fritz T. (9)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
26	Bellucci M.	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
27	Ugo Carabelli C.	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
28	Misolic F.	Cerundolo F. (24)	0 : 3
29	Blockx A. (28)	Barrios Vera T. (Q)	3 : 0
30	Shang J.	Trungelliti M.	2 : 3
31	Basavareddy N. (Q)	Schoolkate T. (Q)	1 : 3
32	Comesana F.	Cobolli F. (5)	2 : 3
33	Medvedev D. (7)	Gaston H. (Q)	3 : 0
34	Gorzny S. (WC)	Collignon R.	3 : 2
35	Munar J.	Atmane T.	3 : 2
36	Shimabukuro S.	Rinderknech A. (26)	1 : 3
37	Vacherot V. (22)	Kovacevic A.	3 : 0
38	Majchrzak K.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 0
39	Vukic A.	Sakamoto R. (Q)	2 : 3
40	Damm M.	Tiafoe F. (11)	2 : 3
41	Nakashima B. (16)	Baez S.	3 : 0
42	Michelsen A.	Cina F. (Q)	3 : 0
43	Merida Aguilar D.	Fucsovics M.	3 : 0
44	Virtanen O. (LL)	Rublev A. (23)	2 : 3
45	Etcheverry T. M. (27)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
46	Landaluce M.	Fearnley J. (LL)	2 : 3
47	Berrettini M.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	3 : 0
48	Navone M.	Djokovic N. (4)	3 : 2
49	Shelton B. (8)	Griekspoor T.	3 : 1
50	Dzumhur D.	Hurkacz H.	1 : 3
51	Kecmanovic M.	Shapovalov D.	1 : 3
52	van Assche L.	Norrie C. (29)	3 : 1
53	Lehecka J. (18)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 1
54	Samuel T. (Q)	Machac T.	3 : 0
55	Harris L. (Q)	Kennedy J. (WC)	3 : 0
56	Tsitsipas S.	Fils A. (10)	3 : 1
57	Bublik A. (15)	Wolf J.J. (WC)	3 : 1
58	Tirante T. A.	Mannarino A.	2 : 3
59	Prizmic D.	Shevchenko A.	3 : 2
60	Wong C. (Q)	Paul T. (20)	1 : 3
61	Arnaldi M. (30)	Duckworth J.	1 : 3
62	Wu Y.	Walton A.	3 : 0
63	Faria J.	Brooksby J.	3 : 2
64	Safiullin R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Halys Q.
2	Popyrin A.	Tabilo A. (25)
3	Darderi L. (21)	Svrcina D.
4	Sweeny D.	Musetti L. (13)
5	Bu Y.	Zheng M.
6	Svajda Z.	Gea A.
7	Bergs Z. (31)	De Jong J.
8	Van De Zandschulp B.	De Minaur A. (6)
9	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)	Khachanov K.
10	Bonzi B.	Buse I. (32)
11	Mensik J. (17)	Rodionov J.
12	Monfils G.	Tien L. (14)
13	Fritz T. (9)	Bellucci M.
14	Struff J-L.	Cerundolo F. (24)
15	Blockx A. (28)	Trungelliti M.
16	Schoolkate T.	Cobolli F. (5)
17	Medvedev D. (7)	Gorzny S.	3 : 0
18	Munar J.	Rinderknech A. (26)	0 : 3
19	Vacherot V. (22)	Majchrzak K.
20	Sakamoto R.	Tiafoe F. (11)
21	Nakashima B. (16)	Michelsen A.	0 : 3
22	Merida Aguilar D.	Rublev A. (23)	3 : 1
23	Etcheverry T. M. (27)	Fearnley J.	3 : 1
24	Berrettini M.	Navone M.
25	Shelton B. (8)	Hurkacz H.	3 : 1
26	Shapovalov D.	van Assche L.	3 : 0
27	Lehecka J. (18)	Samuel T.	3 : 0
28	Harris L.	Tsitsipas S.	1 : 3
29	Bublik A. (15)	Mannarino A.	3 : 0
30	Prizmic D.	Paul T. (20)
31	Duckworth J.	Wu Y.	0 : 3
32	Faria J.	Alcaraz C. (2)

1/16-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8
5	TBD #9	TBD #10
6	TBD #11	TBD #12
7	TBD #13	TBD #14
8	TBD #15	TBD #16
9	Medvedev D. (7)	Rinderknech A. (26)
10	TBD #19	TBD #20
11	Michelsen A.	Merida Aguilar D.
12	Etcheverry T. M. (27)	TBD #24
13	Shelton B. (8)	Shapovalov D.
14	Lehecka J. (18)	Tsitsipas S.
15	Bublik A. (15)	TBD #30
16	Wu Y.	TBD #32

1/8-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8
5	TBD #9	TBD #10
6	TBD #11	TBD #12
7	TBD #13	TBD #14
8	TBD #15	TBD #16

Quarter-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8

Semi-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4

Final

TBD #1

TBD #2

ATP US Open Outrights

1. Alcaraz Carlos: 2.39 (28.15%)

2. Zverev Alexander: 3.55 (18.95%)

3. Shelton Ben: 7 (9.61%)

4. Fritz Taylor: 9.25 (7.27%)

5. Medvedev Daniil: 18 (3.74%)

6. Auger-Aliassime Felix: 21.5 (3.13%)

7. Cobolli Flavio: 28.5 (2.36%)

8. Musetti Lorenzo: 28.5 (2.36%)

9. Tiafoe Frances: 33.5 (2.01%)

10. Mensik Jakub: 33.5 (2.01%)

11. De Minaur Alex: 37 (1.82%)

12. Lehecka Jiri: 40.5 (1.66%)

13. Paul Tommy: 40.5 (1.66%)

14. Tien Learner: 40.5 (1.66%)

15. Berrettini Matteo: 50.5 (1.33%)

16. Bublik Alexander: 50.5 (1.33%)

17. Michelsen Alex: 66 (1.02%)

18. Ruud Casper: 67 (1%)

19. Tsitsipas Stefanos: 73 (0.92%)

20. Vacherot Valentin: 125.5 (0.54%)

21. Shapovalov Denis: 150.5 (0.45%)

22. Merida Aguilar Daniel: 175.5 (0.38%)

23. Cerundolo Francisco: 175.5 (0.38%)

24. Rinderknech Arthur: 200.5 (0.34%)

25. Navone Mariano: 200.5 (0.34%)

26. Bergs Zizou: 225.5 (0.3%)

27. Blockx Alexander: 250.5 (0.27%)

28. Khachanov Karen: 250.5 (0.27%)

29. Buse Ignacio: 275.5 (0.24%)

30. Darderi Luciano: 275.5 (0.24%)

31. Tabilo Alejandro: 275.5 (0.24%)

32. Wu Yibing: 275.5 (0.24%)

33. Bu Yunchaokete: 301 (0.22%)

34. Struff Jan-Lennard: 375.5 (0.18%)

35. Svajda Zachary: 375.5 (0.18%)

36. Etcheverry Tomas Martin: 375.5 (0.18%)

37. Van De Zandschulp Botic: 375.5 (0.18%)

38. Zheng Michael: 375.5 (0.18%)

39. Monfils Gael: 375.5 (0.18%)

40. Popyrin Alexei: 375.5 (0.18%)

41. Halys Quentin: 375.5 (0.18%)

42. Majchrzak Kamil: 375.5 (0.18%)

43. Bellucci Mattia: 375.5 (0.18%)

44. Bonzi Benjamin: 375.5 (0.18%)

45. Sweeny Dane: 375.5 (0.18%)

46. Svrcina Dalibor: 375.5 (0.18%)

47. Sakamoto Rei: 375.5 (0.18%)

48. Schoolkate Tristan: 375.5 (0.18%)

49. Faria Jaime: 401 (0.17%)

50. Gea Arthur: 451 (0.15%)

51. Prizmic Dino: 501 (0.13%)

52. Trungelliti Marco: 501 (0.13%)

53. De Jong Jesper: 501 (0.13%)

54. Rodionov Jurij: 501 (0.13%)

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