Burnley vs Derby County predictions, Sep 19, 2026

Score, Highlights

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As Burnley FC prepares to host Derby County at Turf Moor on September 19, 2026, both teams will vie for crucial points in the English League Championship. Burnley enters this match in a precarious position, having failed to secure a victory in their last five outings. This recent stretch has raised concerns about their tactical cohesion and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

On the other hand, Derby County boasts a modest improvement with one win in their last five matches, but they too will seek to enhance their consistency and overall performance. The bookmakers’ odds reflect Burnley as the slight favorites at 1.8, indicating a belief in their potential to turn the tide at home.

Statistical models predict a probability of 53.4% for a Burnley victory, contrasting with a 21.8% chance for an away win for Derby. Both teams will need to adapt their strategies effectively, with Burnley looking to leverage their home advantage while Derby aims to exploit any defensive lapses.

Ultimately, this encounter is poised to be competitive, with no guaranteed outcomes, as both sides search for revitalization in their campaigns. The predicted scoreline of 2:1 underscores the anticipation of a closely fought match.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-09-13T02:52:03+00:00.

Burnley 51.9%

Draw 25.7%

Derby 22.4%

Prediction (the most likely score): 2:1

Outrights of English League Championship Burnley: 0.77% Derby: 0.6%

Watch and Bet Burnley – Derby available at: Bet Now (Full Screen)

Betting Odds

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.70	4.20
	1.83	3.73	4.30
	1.78	3.60	4.30
	1.79	3.70	4.22	Watch and Bet
	1.78	3.65	4.25
	1.89	3.68	3.88
	1.81	3.60	4.10

Latest Results

12.09.26 Swansea City – Burnley FC – 3:1 08.09.26 Wrexham AFC – Burnley FC – 1:1 05.09.26 Burnley FC – Bristol City – 1:2 02.09.26 Burnley FC – Middlesbrough FC – 1:1 29.08.26 Norwich City – Burnley FC – 4:1

12.09.26 Derby County – Birmingham City – 1:2 09.09.26 Derby County – West Bromwich Albion – 0:1 05.09.26 West Ham United – Derby County – 3:0 01.09.26 Portsmouth FC – Derby County – 0:2 29.08.26 Derby County – Swansea City – 0:3

Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Burnley is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:3. (average 1.5:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 1.7:0.3).

Latest Head To Head

26.08.25 Burnley FC – Derby County – 2:1 08.04.25 Derby County – Burnley FC – 0:0 10.12.24 Burnley FC – Derby County – 0:0 25.01.16 Burnley FC – Derby County – 4:1 21.09.15 Derby County – Burnley FC – 0:0

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	20:9	11	14
2	Swansea	7	4	2	1	11:5	6	14
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	10:7	3	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	12:8	4	13
5	QPR	7	3	3	1	8:5	3	12
6	Charlton	7	3	3	1	6:7	-1	12
7	Southampton	7	4	2	1	18:8	10	10
8	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	10:9	1	10
9	Stoke	7	3	1	3	11:11	0	10
10	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	10:11	-1	10
11	Norwich	7	3	0	4	13:13	0	9
12	Millwall	6	3	0	3	11:11	0	9
13	Sheffield Utd	6	2	3	1	8:8	0	9
14	Wolves	5	2	2	1	13:10	3	8
15	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	10:10	0	8
16	Lincoln	6	2	2	2	5:6	-1	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	7:9	-2	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	7:8	-1	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	7:11	-4	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	7:12	-5	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	6:13	-7	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	6:13	-7	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	8:16	-8	3

English League Championship Outrights

1. West Ham: 2 (37.69%)

2. Middlesbrough: 5.5 (13.7%)

3. Wolves: 6.12 (12.32%)

4. Southampton: 12.75 (5.91%)

5. Swansea: 19 (3.97%)

6. Norwich: 20.75 (3.63%)

7. West Brom: 20.75 (3.63%)

8. Millwall: 25.75 (2.93%)

9. Birmingham: 28 (2.69%)

10. Sheffield Utd: 33.75 (2.23%)

11. QPR: 42 (1.79%)

12. Wrexham: 50 (1.51%)

13. Bristol City: 65 (1.16%)

14. Stoke City: 97.5 (0.77%)

15. Burnley: 97.5 (0.77%)

16. Portsmouth: 112.5 (0.67%)

17. Watford: 112.5 (0.67%)

18. Derby: 125 (0.6%)

19. Charlton: 125 (0.6%)

20. Cardiff: 137.5 (0.55%)

21. Lincoln City: 137.5 (0.55%)

22. Preston: 137.5 (0.55%)

23. Blackburn: 137.5 (0.55%)

24. Bolton: 137.5 (0.55%)

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