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Geelong Cats vs Greater Western Sydney Giants predictions, May 11, 2025

Yuriy Borshchenko

AFL, on Sunday,

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The upcoming match between Geelong Cats and Greater Western Sydney Giants promises to be an exciting showdown as both teams are coming into this game with solid recent form. Geelong has won 3 of their last 5 matches, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure and secure crucial victories. However, Greater Western Sydney Giants have also been in good form, winning 2 of their last 5 matches and showing resilience on the field.

In terms of strengths, Geelong Cats have been strong at home and will have the advantage of their home crowd support in this match. Their attacking prowess and defensive solidity will be key factors in their bid for success. On the other hand, Greater Western Sydney Giants will look to capitalize on their momentum and continue their winning streak with a strong performance on the road.

Based on the bookmakers’ odds and our model prediction, Geelong Cats are favored to win this match with a 58.2% probability. However, Greater Western Sydney Giants cannot be underestimated and will be looking to upset the odds with a determined performance. Fans can expect a thrilling and competitive contest between these two talented teams.

Geelong 62.1% GWS 37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Geelong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+62.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Geelong’s performance.
  • GWS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+37.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting GWS’s recent form is better than expected.

    • Outrights of AFL Geelong Cats: 10.72%

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    Betting Odds

    1 X 2
    1.55 2.47

    Latest Results

    03.05.25 Collingwood Magpies – Geelong Cats – 87:90
    27.04.25 Carlton Blues – Geelong Cats – 94:76
    21.04.25 Geelong Cats – Hawthorn Hawks – 86:79
    10.04.25 Adelaide Crows – Geelong Cats – 100:119
    04.04.25 Geelong Cats – Melbourne Demons – 85:46    		 03.05.25 Sydney Swans – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 87:73
    26.04.25 Greater Western Sydney Giants – Western Bulldogs – 81:113
    19.04.25 Adelaide Crows – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 52:34
    13.04.25 St Kilda Saints – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 82:110
    05.04.25 Greater Western Sydney Giants – West Coast Eagles – 132:51

    Facts

  • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ))
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 2.
  • Geelong is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • GWS‘s form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Geelong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • Geelong could have a small edge in this match.
  • We predict that Geelong will win today’s game, with odds of 1.54.
  • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 1310:1093. (average 87.3:72.9).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 685:569. (average 85.6:71.1).

    Latest Head To Head

    25.05.24 Geelong Cats – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 74:78
    27.05.23 Geelong Cats – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 74:81
    07.05.22 Greater Western Sydney Giants – Geelong Cats – 35:88
    03.09.21 Geelong Cats – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 103:68
    06.08.21 Geelong Cats – Greater Western Sydney Giants – 65:84

    Standings

    2025

    Pl W D L %% Pts
    1 Collingwood Magpies 8 6 0 2 735:552 133.15 24
    2 Brisbane Lions 7 6 0 1 657:583 112.69 24
    3 Gold Coast Suns 6 5 0 1 674:449 150.11 20
    4 Adelaide Crows 8 5 0 3 829:629 131.80 20
    5 Western Bulldogs 8 5 0 3 815:641 127.15 20
    6 Geelong Cats 8 5 0 3 755:643 117.42 20
    7 Hawthorn Hawks 7 5 0 2 657:566 116.08 20
    8 GWS Giants 8 4 0 4 675:587 114.99 16
    9 Fremantle Dockers 8 4 0 4 660:679 97.20 16
    10 St Kilda Saints 8 4 0 4 699:739 94.59 16
    11 Essendon Bombers 7 4 0 3 561:633 88.63 16
    12 Port Adelaide Power 8 4 0 4 661:752 87.90 16
    13 Carlton Blues 8 3 0 5 668:615 108.62 12
    14 Sydney Swans 8 3 0 5 664:683 97.22 12
    15 Melbourne Demons 8 3 0 5 603:739 81.60 12
    16 Richmond Tigers 7 2 0 5 483:722 66.90 8
    17 North Melbourne 8 1 0 7 662:866 76.44 4
    18 West Coast Eagles 8 0 0 8 518:898 57.68 0

    AFL Outrights

    1. Collingwood Magpies: 5.5 (15.59%)

    2. Brisbane Lions: 6 (14.29%)

    3. Hawthorn Hawks: 7.5 (11.43%)

    4. Greater Western Sydney: 8 (10.72%)

    5. Geelong Cats: 8 (10.72%)

    6. Western Bulldogs: 9 (9.53%)

    7. Adelaide Crows: 17 (5.04%)

    8. Gold Coast Suns: 18 (4.76%)

    9. Carlton Blues: 20 (4.29%)

    10. Fremantle Dockers: 25 (3.43%)

    11. Sydney Swans: 28 (3.06%)

    12. Port Adelaide Power: 30 (2.86%)

    13. St Kilda Saints: 65 (1.32%)

    14. Melbourne Demons: 80 (1.07%)

    15. Essendon Bombers: 100 (0.86%)

    16. Richmond Tigers: 250 (0.34%)

    17. North Melbourne: 250 (0.34%)

    18. West Coast Eagles: 250 (0.34%)

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