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HPK vs Kärpät predictions, Mar 07, 2026

Yuriy Borshchenko

Finnish SM-liiga, Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna) on Saturday,

Score, Highlights

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As the Finnish SM-liiga clash approaches, HPK Hockey will host Kärpät Oulu on March 7, 2026. HPK enters this matchup with a solid momentum, having secured victories in three of their last five games. Their recent form suggests an uptick in offensive production, which will be crucial against a Kärpät team that, despite winning only two of their last five outings, can never be underestimated.

The bookmakers have set the odds at 1.87 for HPK’s victory and 3.38 for an away win by Kärpät, reflecting a competitive landscape. Our model indicates a probability of 47.4% for a home win, 23.9% for a draw, and 28.8% for an away triumph, underscoring the tight nature of this encounter.

Tactically, HPK will likely lean on their home advantage and recent scoring form, while Kärpät must harness their resilience and capitalize on counterattacking opportunities. Both teams have demonstrated potential in various facets of play, making this matchup unpredictable.

In summary, while HPK appears to have the edge given their recent performances and home ice, the volatility of hockey leaves room for surprises. Bettors should weigh recent trends and tactical strengths carefully as they consider their options.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-03-06T14:52:03+00:00.

HPK
49.7%		 Draw
22.8%		 Kärpät
27.5%

Prediction (the most likely score): 3:2

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga Hameenlinna: 0.78%

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Betting Odds

1 X 2
1.88 4.05 3.7
1.91 4.2 3.33
1.83 3.9 3.1
1.87 4.18 3.39

Latest Results

06.03.26 HPK Hockey – Kärpat Oulu – 3:2 OT
28.02.26 SaiPa hockey – HPK Hockey – 0:3
27.02.26 HPK Hockey – SaiPa hockey – 1:5
19.02.26 HPK Hockey – KalPa hockey – 2:1 penalties
17.02.26 Vaasan Sport – HPK Hockey – 0:4		 06.03.26 HPK Hockey – Kärpat Oulu – 3:2 OT
04.03.26 Kärpat Oulu – KooKoo – 4:3 penalties
28.02.26 Kärpat Oulu – Tappara hockey – 1:4
20.02.26 Mikkelin Jukurit – Kärpat Oulu – 5:4
18.02.26 KooKoo – Kärpat Oulu – 4:3

Facts

  • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3.
  • HPK is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • Kärpät is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
  • HPK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • HPK is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
  • We predict that HPK will win today’s game, with odds of 1.87.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 41:58. (average 2.1:2.9).
  • Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 2.1:2.5).

    Latest Head To Head

    06.03.26 HPK Hockey – Kärpat Oulu – 3:2 OT
    18.10.25 Kärpat Oulu – HPK Hockey – 1:2
    17.10.25 Kärpat Oulu – HPK Hockey – 5:2
    22.01.25 Kärpat Oulu – HPK Hockey – 0:3
    13.12.24 HPK Hockey – Kärpat Oulu – 0:4

    Standings

    2025/26

    Pl W WO LO L Pts
    1 Tappara 54 34 2 3 15 205:128 109
    2 KooKoo 56 30 7 2 17 200:143 106
    3 SaiPa 56 29 6 7 14 192:148 106
    4 Lukko 56 27 8 3 18 172:143 100
    5 JYP 55 24 11 5 15 186:161 99
    6 KalPa 56 27 6 5 18 169:163 98
    7 Ilves 54 25 7 4 18 164:139 93
    8 Assat 55 23 6 4 22 152:151 85
    9 Kiekko-Espoo 56 20 4 11 21 141:154 79
    10 Pelicans 55 18 8 7 22 124:144 77
    11 IFK Helsinki 55 20 4 5 26 128:176 73
    12 Hameenlinna 55 15 8 8 24 131:152 69
    13 TPS Turku 55 15 7 9 24 130:158 68
    14 Jukurit 56 15 6 7 28 126:153 64
    15 Karpat 56 15 6 6 29 164:182 63
    16 Vaasan Sport 56 9 1 11 35 107:196 40

    Finnish SM-liiga Outrights

    1. Tappara: 2.44 (36.15%)

    2. Ilves Tampere: 4.35 (20.28%)

    3. Lukko Rauman: 8.4 (10.5%)

    4. Saipa: 13 (6.78%)

    5. KooKoo: 13.75 (6.41%)

    6. JYP Jyvaskyla: 15.75 (5.6%)

    7. Kalpa Kuopio: 20.5 (4.3%)

    8. IFK Helsinki: 27.75 (3.18%)

    9. Assat Pori: 72.75 (1.21%)

    10. Karpat Oulu: 91.5 (0.96%)

    11. Kiekko-Espoo: 95.25 (0.93%)

    12. Vaasan Sport: 100 (0.88%)

    13. Pelicans Lahti: 100.25 (0.88%)

    14. TPS Turku: 100.25 (0.88%)

    15. Hameenlinna: 112.75 (0.78%)

    16. Jukurit: 325.25 (0.27%)

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