Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti predictions, May 02, 2025

May 01, 2025 0 Comment By Yuriy Borshchenko

ATP Madrid, on Friday,

Draper

Musetti

Score, Highlights

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In this upcoming ATP Madrid match, we have Jack Draper facing off against Lorenzo Musetti. Both players have been in decent form recently, with Draper winning 3 of his last 5 matches and Musetti winning 4 of his last 5.

Despite their similar recent form, the bookmakers have slightly favored Draper as the home player, with odds of 1.51 compared to Musetti’s odds of 2.62. Our model prediction also gives Draper a 64.3% chance of winning, while Musetti is at 35.7%.

Draper will have the advantage of playing on home turf, which could give him a boost in this match. However, Musetti has shown good form as well and should not be underestimated. Ultimately, the predicted final score of 2:0 suggests a comfortable win for Draper, but Musetti could certainly turn the tables if he brings his A-game.

Overall, this promises to be an exciting match between two talented players, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in this clash.

Draper 63.4% Musetti 36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+63.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Draper’s performance.

Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+36.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Musetti’s recent form is better than expected.

Prediction (the most likely score): 2:0

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Watch Watch and Bet Draper – Musetti available at: Bet Now (Full Screen)

Betting Odds

1 X 2
betsson 1.51 2.6
MarathonBet 1.53 2.65 Watch Watch and Bet
Best for US Customers 1.51 2.6

Latest Results

01.05.25 Jack Draper – Matteo Arnaldi – 2:0
30.04.25 Jack Draper – Tommy Paul – 2:0
29.04.25 Jack Draper – Matteo Berrettini – Berrettini M. retired
26.04.25 Jack Draper – Tallon Griekspoor – 2:0
10.04.25 Jack Draper – Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – 1:2		 01.05.25 Lorenzo Musetti – Gabriel Diallo – 2:0
30.04.25 Alex De Minaur – Lorenzo Musetti – 0:2
29.04.25 Stefanos Tsitsipas – Lorenzo Musetti – 0:2
26.04.25 Tomas Martin Etcheverry – Lorenzo Musetti – 0:2
14.04.25 Lorenzo Musetti – Jaume Munar – Canceled

Facts

  • Draper is ranked ATP: 6. Musetti is ranked ATP: 11.
  • Draper is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • Musetti is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
  • Draper might have a minor edge in this game.
  • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Draper won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

    Latest Head To Head

    26.10.24 Lorenzo Musetti – Jack Draper – 0:2
    08.11.23 Lorenzo Musetti – Jack Draper – 0:2
    10.11.22 Lorenzo Musetti – Jack Draper – 0:3
    12.07.18 Jack Draper – Lorenzo Musetti – 2:1

    Standings

    Draw

    Singles – Main

    1/64-finals

    1 Zverev A. (1) Bye
    2 Bautista-Agut R. Munar J. 2 : 1
    3 Borges N. Carreno-Busta P. (WC) 2 : 1
    4 Bye Davidovich Fokina A. (28)
    5 Cerundolo F. (20) Bye
    6 Moutet C. (RET.) Mayot H. (Q) 0 : 1
    7 Comesana F. Martinez P. 2 : 0
    8 Bye Fils A. (13)
    9 Shelton B. (12) Bye
    10 Mpetshi Perricard G. Navone M. 0 : 2
    11 Lajovic D. (Q) Quinn E. (Q) 0 : 2
    12 Bye Mensik J. (22)
    13 Popyrin A. (25) Bye
    14 Michelsen A. Bublik A. 0 : 2
    15 Monfils G. Gojo B. (Q) 2 : 1
    16 Bye Rublev A. (7)
    17 Fritz T. (3) Bye
    18 O’Connell C. Ugo Carabelli C. 2 : 0
    19 Bonzi B. Cilic M. (WC) 2 : 0
    20 Bye Hurkacz H. (27)
    21 Korda S. (23) Bye
    22 Cina F. (WC) Wong C. (WC) 2 : 0
    23 Safiullin R. Rinderknech A. 0 : 2
    24 Bye Ruud C. (14)
    25 Medvedev D. (9) Bye
    26 Fognini F. (Q) Djere L. 0 : 2
    27 Cerundolo J. M. (Q) Kovacevic A. 2 : 1
    28 Bye Auger-Aliassime F. (18)
    29 Nakashima B. (31) Bye
    30 Ofner S. (PR) Gaston H. (Q) 2 : 0
    31 Marozsan F. Cobolli F. 0 : 2
    32 Bye Rune H. (8)
    33 Draper J. (5) Bye
    34 Griekspoor T. Kopriva V. (Q) 2 : 0
    35 Tien L. Giron M. 1 : 2
    36 Bye Berrettini M. (30)
    37 Khachanov K. (24) Bye
    38 Opelka R. (PR) Hijikata R. (LL) 2 : 0
    39 Fonseca J. Moller E. (Q) 2 : 0
    40 Bye Paul T. (11)
    41 Tiafoe F. (16) Bye
    42 Halys Q. Darderi L. 0 : 2
    43 Goffin D. (RET.) Muller A. 1 : 1
    44 Bye Humbert U. (21)
    45 Baez S. (32) Bye
    46 Dzumhur D. Bellucci M. 2 : 1
    47 Arnaldi M. Coric B. (Q) 2 : 1
    48 Bye Djokovic N. (4)
    49 De Minaur A. (6) Bye
    50 Sonego L. Kecmanovic M. 2 : 0
    51 Vukic A. Nishikori K. 1 : 2
    52 Bye Shapovalov D. (29)
    53 Tsitsipas S. (17) Bye
    54 Van De Zandschulp B. (RET.) (LL) Struff J-L. 1 : 1
    55 Etcheverry T. M. Medjedovic H. 2 : 1
    56 Bye Musetti L. (10)
    57 Dimitrov G. (15) Bye
    58 Altmaier D. (Q) Jarry N. 0 : 2
    59 Bu Y. Fearnley J. (Q) 0 : 2
    60 Bye Machac T. (19)
    61 Lehecka J. (26) Bye
    62 Landaluce M. (WC) Norrie C. 1 : 2
    63 Bergs Z. Diallo G. (LL) 0 : 2
    64 Bye Majchrzak K. (LL)

    1/32-finals

    1 Zverev A. (1) Bautista-Agut R. 2 : 0
    2 Borges N. Davidovich Fokina A. (28) 0 : 2
    3 Cerundolo F. (20) Mayot H. 2 : 0
    4 Comesana F. Fils A. (13) 2 : 0
    5 Shelton B. (12) Navone M. 2 : 1
    6 Quinn E. Mensik J. (22) 0 : 2
    7 Popyrin A. (25) Bublik A. 0 : 2
    8 Monfils G. Rublev A. (WO.) (7)
    9 Fritz T. (3) O’Connell C. 2 : 0
    10 Bonzi B. Hurkacz H. (27) 2 : 0
    11 Korda S. (23) Cina F. 2 : 1
    12 Rinderknech A. Ruud C. (14) 0 : 2
    13 Medvedev D. (WO.) (9) Djere L.
    14 Cerundolo J. M. Auger-Aliassime F. (18) 2 : 0
    15 Nakashima B. (31) Ofner S. 2 : 0
    16 Cobolli F. Rune H. (RET.) (8) 1 : 0
    17 Draper J. (5) Griekspoor T. 2 : 0
    18 Giron M. Berrettini M. (30) 1 : 2
    19 Khachanov K. (24) Opelka R. 2 : 0
    20 Fonseca J. Paul T. (11) 0 : 2
    21 Tiafoe F. (16) Darderi L. (RET.) 1 : 0
    22 Muller A. Humbert U. (21) 2 : 1
    23 Baez S. (32) Dzumhur D. 1 : 2
    24 Arnaldi M. Djokovic N. (4) 2 : 0
    25 De Minaur A. (6) Sonego L. 2 : 0
    26 Nishikori K. Shapovalov D. (29) 0 : 2
    27 Tsitsipas S. (17) Struff J-L. 2 : 1
    28 Etcheverry T. M. Musetti L. (10) 0 : 2
    29 Dimitrov G. (15) Jarry N. 2 : 0
    30 Fearnley J. Machac T. (19) 2 : 1
    31 Lehecka J. (26) Norrie C. 1 : 2
    32 Diallo G. (LL) Majchrzak K. (LL) 2 : 1

    1/16-finals

    1 Zverev A. (1) Davidovich Fokina A. (28) 2 : 1
    2 Cerundolo F. (20) Comesana F. 2 : 0
    3 Shelton B. (12) Mensik J. (22) 0 : 2
    4 Bublik A. Rublev A. (7) 2 : 1
    5 Fritz T. (3) Bonzi B. (RET.) 1 : 1
    6 Korda S. (23) Ruud C. (14) 0 : 2
    7 Medvedev D. (9) Cerundolo J. M. 2 : 0
    8 Nakashima B. (31) Cobolli F. 2 : 0
    9 Draper J. (5) Berrettini M. (RET.) (30) 1 : 0
    10 Khachanov K. (24) Paul T. (11) 1 : 2
    11 Tiafoe F. (16) Muller A. 2 : 0
    12 Dzumhur D. Arnaldi M. 0 : 2
    13 De Minaur A. (6) Shapovalov D. (29) 2 : 0
    14 Tsitsipas S. (17) Musetti L. (10) 0 : 2
    15 Dimitrov G. (15) Fearnley J. 2 : 0
    16 Norrie C. Diallo G. 1 : 2

    1/8-finals

    1 Zverev A. (1) Cerundolo F. (20) 0 : 2
    2 Mensik J. (22) Bublik A. 2 : 0
    3 Fritz T. (3) Ruud C. (14) 0 : 2
    4 Medvedev D. (9) Nakashima B. (31) 2 : 1
    5 Draper J. (5) Paul T. (11) 2 : 0
    6 Tiafoe F. (16) Arnaldi M. 0 : 2
    7 De Minaur A. (6) Musetti L. (10) 0 : 2
    8 Dimitrov G. (15) Diallo G. 1 : 2

    Quarter-finals

    1 Cerundolo F. (20) Mensik J. (22) 2 : 1
    2 Ruud C. (14) Medvedev D. (9) 2 : 0
    3 Draper J. (5) Arnaldi M. 2 : 0
    4 Musetti L. (10) Diallo G. 2 : 0

    Semi-finals

    1 Cerundolo F. (20) Ruud C. (14)
    2 Draper J. (5) Musetti L. (10)

    Final

    1 TBD #1 TBD #2

    ATP Madrid Outrights

    1. Ruud Casper: 3.95 (19.99%)

    2. Draper Jack: 3.95 (19.99%)

    3. Musetti Lorenzo: 4.47 (17.68%)

    4. Cerundolo Francisco: 6.38 (12.39%)

    5. Medvedev Daniil: 7.63 (10.36%)

    6. Mensik Jakub: 7.88 (10.03%)

    7. Arnaldi Matteo: 16.5 (4.79%)

    8. Diallo Gabriel: 16.5 (4.79%)

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