Monterrey vs Toluca predictions, May 07, 2025

May 05, 2025 0 Comment By Yuriy Borshchenko

Mexican Liga MX, on Wednesday,

Monterrey

Toluca

Score, Highlights

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In this highly anticipated matchup between Monterrey and Toluca in the Mexican Liga MX, both teams are coming into the game in good form with impressive recent results. Monterrey has won three of their last five matches, while Toluca has won four out of their last five.

Monterrey will have the advantage of playing at home, which could give them an extra edge in this crucial fixture. However, Toluca has shown strong form recently and will be looking to continue their winning streak against Monterrey.

According to bookmakers, Monterrey are slight favorites to win this match, but our model prediction suggests that it will be a closely contested game with a high probability of an away win for Toluca.

Both teams have the quality and experience to secure a positive result, so fans can expect an exciting and competitive match between these two sides.

Monterrey 39% Draw 26.4% Toluca 34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+39%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monterrey’s performance.
  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+34.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca’s recent form is better than expected.

    • Outrights of Mexican Liga MX Toluca: 12.8% Monterrey: 7.56%

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    Betting Odds

    1 X 2
    Best for US Customers 2.3 3.4 2.6

    Latest Results

    04.05.25 CF Monterrey – UNAM Pumas – 2:0
    27.04.25 CF Monterrey – CF Pachuca – 1:2
    20.04.25 Club León – CF Monterrey – 0:2
    16.04.25 CF Monterrey – Club América – 1:0
    12.04.25 Tigres UANL – CF Monterrey – 2:1    		 19.04.25 Deportivo Toluca – Cruz Azul FC – 2:2
    16.04.25 Atlético San Luis – Deportivo Toluca – 0:1
    12.04.25 Club Atlas – Deportivo Toluca – 2:3
    06.04.25 Deportivo Toluca – Santos Laguna – 2:1
    29.03.25 Deportivo Toluca – CF Pachuca – 3:2

    Facts

  • 1st leg./
  • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 1.
  • Recent performances by Monterrey have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Toluca is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:28. (average 1.4:1.4).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

    Latest Head To Head

    18.01.25 Deportivo Toluca – CF Monterrey – 1:1
    31.08.24 CF Monterrey – Deportivo Toluca – 1:2
    18.02.24 CF Monterrey – Deportivo Toluca – 0:0
    30.08.23 Deportivo Toluca – CF Monterrey – 1:0
    05.02.23 CF Monterrey – Deportivo Toluca – 2:1

    Standings

    Draw

    Clausura – Play In

    Semi-finals

    1 Monterrey (7) Pachuca (8) 1 : 2
    4 Juarez (9) UNAM Pumas (10) 1 : 2

    Final

    1 Pachuca (8) Bye
    2 Monterrey (7) UNAM Pumas (10) 2 : 0

    Mexican Liga MX Outrights

    1. Club America: 2.75 (30.24%)

    2. Toluca: 6.5 (12.8%)

    3. Tigres UANL: 7 (11.88%)

    4. Cruz Azul: 7.5 (11.09%)

    5. Pachuca: 10 (8.32%)

    6. Monterrey: 11 (7.56%)

    7. Club Leon: 13 (6.4%)

    8. Necaxa: 26 (3.2%)

    9. Guadalajara: 26 (3.2%)

    10. Juarez: 34 (2.45%)

    11. UNAM Pumas: 51 (1.63%)

    12. Atlas: 151 (0.55%)

    13. Mazatlan FC: 501 (0.17%)

    14. Queretaro: 501 (0.17%)

    15. Puebla: 751 (0.11%)

    16. Atletico San Luis: 1001 (0.08%)

    17. Santos Laguna: 1001 (0.08%)

    18. Club Tijuana: 1001 (0.08%)

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