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São Paulo vs Bahia predictions, May 03, 2026

Yuriy Borshchenko

Brazilian Serie A, on Sunday,

Score, Highlights

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As São Paulo FC prepares to host EC Bahia on May 3, 2026, both teams come into this fixture with varying degrees of form. São Paulo has shown relative strength recently, securing victories in three of their last five matches. This positive trend will bolster their confidence as they aim to capitalize on home advantage at the Morumbi Stadium.

On the other hand, EC Bahia has had a more mixed bag, winning two of their last five encounters. Their recent performances indicate a need for improvement, especially in away fixtures where they often struggle to secure points.

Bookmakers have set the odds at 2.17 for a home win, suggesting that São Paulo is favored, while an away win for Bahia stands at 3.35. Statistical models indicate a 43.5% chance of a home victory, compared to 26.7% for an away win and a 29.4% likelihood of a draw.

Tactically, São Paulo may look to control possession and create scoring opportunities through sustained attacks, while Bahia will likely focus on resilience and counter-attacks. Given both teams’ current form and tactical approaches, a closely contested match could ensue, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1 reflecting the balance between both sides. As always, outcomes in sports can be unpredictable, making this matchup intriguing for fans and bettors alike.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-04-27T08:52:03+00:00.

São Paulo
45.2%		 Draw
28.9%		 Bahia
25.9%

Prediction (the most likely score): 1:1

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A Bahia: 1.93% Sao Paulo: 1.38%

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Betting Odds

1 X 2
2.12 3.3 3.74
2.08 3.2 3.55
2.12 3.35 3.69 Watch and Bet
2.05 3.1 3.5
2.09 3.35 3.65

Latest Results

25.04.26 São Paulo FC – Mirassol – 1:0
21.04.26 São Paulo FC – EC Juventude – 1:0
18.04.26 Vasco da Gama – São Paulo FC – 2:1
14.04.26 São Paulo FC – OHiggins – 2:0
11.04.26 EC Vitória Salvador – São Paulo FC – 2:0		 25.04.26 EC Bahia – Santos FC – 2:2
22.04.26 EC Bahia – Clube Do Remo – 1:3
19.04.26 Flamengo RJ – EC Bahia – 2:0
11.04.26 Mirassol – EC Bahia – 1:2
05.04.26 EC Bahia – Palmeiras – 1:2

Facts

  • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.
  • São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Bahia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
  • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • São Paulo will hold a modest advantage in this match.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 1.2:0.7).
  • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).

    Latest Head To Head

    25.10.25 São Paulo FC – EC Bahia – 2:0
    31.05.25 EC Bahia – São Paulo FC – 2:1
    05.11.24 EC Bahia – São Paulo FC – 0:3
    30.06.24 São Paulo FC – EC Bahia – 3:1
    29.11.23 EC Bahia – São Paulo FC – 0:1

    Standings

    2026

    Pl W D L Diff Pts
    1 Palmeiras 13 10 2 1 23:10 13 32
    2 Flamengo RJ 12 8 2 2 24:10 14 26
    3 Fluminense 13 8 2 3 23:16 7 26
    4 Sao Paulo 13 7 2 4 17:11 6 23
    5 Athletico-PR 13 7 1 5 20:15 5 22
    6 Bahia 12 6 3 3 17:14 3 21
    7 Coritiba 13 5 4 4 15:13 2 19
    8 Botafogo RJ 12 5 2 5 24:24 0 17
    9 Bragantino 13 5 2 6 15:15 0 17
    10 Vasco 13 4 4 5 18:19 -1 16
    11 Gremio 13 4 4 5 15:16 -1 16
    12 Cruzeiro 13 4 4 5 17:21 -4 16
    13 Vitoria 12 4 3 5 12:17 -5 15
    14 Corinthians 13 3 6 4 9:11 -2 15
    15 Atletico-MG 13 4 2 7 14:19 -5 14
    16 Internacional 13 3 5 5 12:14 -2 14
    17 Santos 13 3 5 5 18:21 -3 14
    18 Mirassol 12 2 3 7 13:18 -5 9
    19 Remo 13 1 5 7 13:23 -10 8
    20 Chapecoense-SC 12 1 5 6 12:24 -12 8

    Brazilian Serie A Outrights

    1. Palmeiras: 1.93 (42.99%)

    2. Flamengo RJ: 2.18 (38.02%)

    3. Fluminense: 11.4 (7.27%)

    4. Bahia: 43 (1.93%)

    5. Sao Paulo: 60.2 (1.38%)

    6. Cruzeiro: 100.2 (0.83%)

    7. Botafogo RJ: 110.2 (0.75%)

    8. Athletico-PR: 120.2 (0.69%)

    9. Corinthians: 130.2 (0.64%)

    10. Coritiba: 130.2 (0.64%)

    11. Gremio: 140.2 (0.59%)

    12. Bragantino: 140.2 (0.59%)

    13. Vasco: 140.2 (0.59%)

    14. Atletico-MG: 150.2 (0.55%)

    15. Internacional: 150.2 (0.55%)

    16. Santos: 150.2 (0.55%)

    17. Mirassol: 180.2 (0.46%)

    18. Vitoria: 180.2 (0.46%)

    19. Remo: 280.2 (0.3%)

    20. Chapecoense-SC: 380.2 (0.22%)

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