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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions, Feb 25, 2026

Yuriy Borshchenko

NHL, on Wednesday,

Score, Highlights

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As the Tampa Bay Lightning prepare to host the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 25, 2026, fans can expect a matchup that promises intensity and skill. The Lightning enter this contest riding a wave of confidence, having secured victories in their last five outings. This impressive streak highlights their offensive prowess and defensive reliability, making them a formidable force at home.

In contrast, the Maple Leafs have recorded three wins in their previous five games, showcasing their own capabilities. However, their inconsistency could be a concern, particularly against a high-flying Lightning team that thrives under pressure on home ice.

Analysis suggests that the Lightning will likely leverage their strong offensive capabilities to apply pressure early, while the Maple Leafs may aim to capitalize on counterattacks, exhibiting their speed and skill in transition. The bookmakers reflect this outlook, favoring the home team with odds at 1.86 compared to the away team’s 3.48.

Our model prediction gives the Lightning a 50.3% chance of victory, indicating a slight edge, but with Toronto’s determination and recent success, the potential for an upset is certainly present. As with any sporting event, outcomes remain uncertain, and both teams will seek to establish dominance in this critical matchup.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-02-20T04:52:03+00:00.

Tampa Bay
50.9%		 Draw
22.1%		 Toronto
27%

Prediction (the most likely score): 4:3

Outrights of NHL Tampa Bay Lightning: 14.44% Toronto Maple Leafs: 1.3%

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Betting Odds

1 X 2
1.84 4.25 3.64
1.93 4.46 3.47
1.86 4.27 3.48

Latest Results

05.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Florida Panthers – 6:1
03.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Buffalo Sabres – 4:3 OT
01.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Boston Bruins – 6:5 penalties
29.01.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Winnipeg Jets – 4:1
26.01.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Utah Mammoth – 2:0		 03.02.26 Edmonton Oilers – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2:5
02.02.26 Calgary Flames – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2:4
31.01.26 Vancouver Canucks – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2:3 penalties
29.01.26 Seattle Kraken – Toronto Maple Leafs – 5:2
27.01.26 Toronto Maple Leafs – Buffalo Sabres – 4:7

Facts

  • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 11).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 0.
  • Tampa Bay is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
  • In recent matches, Toronto has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
  • Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.
  • Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.
  • Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 64:74. (average 3.2:3.7).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:38. (average 3.4:3.8).

    Latest Head To Head

    08.12.25 Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning – 2:0
    09.04.25 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 3:4 OT
    20.01.25 Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning – 5:3
    30.11.24 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 3:5
    21.10.24 Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning – 5:2

    Standings

    Main

    Western Conference

    Pl W WO LO L Pts
    1 Colorado Avalanche 55 34 3 9 9 212:138 83
    2 Minnesota Wild 58 21 13 10 14 196:169 78
    3 Dallas Stars 57 28 6 9 14 193:160 77
    4 Vegas Golden Knights 57 20 7 14 16 191:179 68
    5 Utah Mammoth 57 23 7 4 23 183:157 64
    6 Edmonton Oilers 58 21 7 8 22 198:194 64
    7 Seattle Kraken 56 21 6 9 20 162:165 63
    8 Anaheim Ducks 56 18 12 3 23 185:195 63
    9 Los Angeles Kings 56 14 9 14 19 146:161 60
    10 Nashville Predators 57 19 7 7 24 169:198 59
    11 San Jose Sharks 55 16 11 4 24 171:193 58
    12 Chicago Blackhawks 57 17 5 9 26 154:185 53
    13 Winnipeg Jets 56 20 2 8 26 160:175 52
    14 Calgary Flames 56 19 4 6 27 142:169 52
    15 St. Louis Blues 57 19 1 9 28 147:203 49
    16 Vancouver Canucks 57 12 6 6 33 149:210 42

    Eastern Conference

    Pl W WO LO L Pts
    1 Tampa Bay Lightning 55 28 9 4 14 199:140 78
    2 Carolina Hurricanes 57 26 10 6 15 197:163 78
    3 Montreal Canadiens 57 21 11 8 17 199:187 72
    4 Detroit Red Wings 58 23 10 6 19 174:175 72
    5 Pittsburgh Penguins 56 25 4 12 15 192:169 70
    6 Buffalo Sabres 57 26 6 6 19 195:176 70
    7 Boston Bruins 57 24 8 5 20 195:182 69
    8 New York Islanders 58 22 10 5 21 169:162 69
    9 Columbus Blue Jackets 56 20 9 7 20 179:177 65
    10 Washington Capitals 59 24 5 7 23 189:177 65
    11 Toronto Maple Leafs 57 19 8 9 21 188:194 63
    12 Ottawa Senators 57 22 6 7 22 191:184 63
    13 Philadelphia Flyers 56 18 7 11 20 167:180 61
    14 Florida Panthers 57 23 6 3 25 174:191 61
    15 New Jersey Devils 57 18 10 2 27 146:175 58
    16 New York Rangers 57 14 8 6 29 151:180 50

    NHL Outrights

    1. Colorado Avalanche: 3.5 (23.72%)

    2. Tampa Bay Lightning: 5.75 (14.44%)

    3. Carolina Hurricanes: 8 (10.38%)

    4. Vegas Golden Knights: 10 (8.3%)

    5. Edmonton Oilers: 11.5 (7.22%)

    6. Dallas Stars: 17 (4.88%)

    7. Minnesota Wild: 19 (4.37%)

    8. Florida Panthers: 26 (3.19%)

    9. Los Angeles Kings: 30 (2.77%)

    10. Montreal Canadiens: 31 (2.68%)

    11. Utah Mammoth: 38.5 (2.16%)

    12. Buffalo Sabres: 41 (2.02%)

    13. Detroit Red Wings: 51 (1.63%)

    14. Pittsburgh Penguins: 51 (1.63%)

    15. Washington Capitals: 53.5 (1.55%)

    16. Toronto Maple Leafs: 64 (1.3%)

    17. New York Islanders: 64 (1.3%)

    18. Ottawa Senators: 71 (1.17%)

    19. Anaheim Ducks: 78.5 (1.06%)

    20. Columbus Blue Jackets: 78.5 (1.06%)

    21. Boston Bruins: 138.5 (0.6%)

    22. New Jersey Devils: 176 (0.47%)

    23. Seattle Kraken: 226 (0.37%)

    24. Nashville Predators: 226 (0.37%)

    25. San Jose Sharks: 251 (0.33%)

    26. Philadelphia Flyers: 251 (0.33%)

    27. Winnipeg Jets: 301 (0.28%)

    28. Calgary Flames: 876 (0.09%)

    29. St. Louis Blues: 876 (0.09%)

    30. Chicago Blackhawks: 876 (0.09%)

    31. New York Rangers: 876 (0.09%)

    32. Vancouver Canucks: 1001 (0.08%)

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