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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions, Mar 07, 2026

Yuriy Borshchenko

NHL, on Saturday,

Score, Highlights

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As the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 7, 2026, fans can expect an intriguing battle in the NHL. The Maple Leafs have struggled recently, failing to secure a win in their last five outings. This lack of momentum may weigh on their confidence as they approach this crucial matchup at home, where they typically thrive on the support of their fans.

In contrast, the Tampa Bay Lightning have garnered some positive results, winning two of their last five games. Their recent form showcases an ability to bounce back and capitalize on scoring opportunities, which could pose a significant challenge for Toronto’s defense. The Lightning’s offensive strategy emphasizes quick transitions and effective power plays, advantages that may exploit the Maple Leafs’ current vulnerabilities.

Bookmakers reflect this competitive landscape, offering odds of 2.78 for a home victory against 2.16 for an away win, suggesting an anticipated close contest. According to predictive models, the probability of a home win stands at 34%, while the away team is favored at 43.8%. The projected final score of 3:4 indicates a high-scoring affair could be on the cards.

As both teams look to regain footing, the outcome remains uncertain, underscoring the unpredictable nature of hockey. Fans should anticipate an electrifying clash.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-03-05T11:52:03+00:00.

Toronto
32.3%		 Draw
22.1%		 Tampa Bay
45.6%

Prediction (the most likely score): 3:4

Outrights of NHL Tampa Bay Lightning: 17.1% Toronto Maple Leafs: 0.33%

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Betting Odds

1 X 2
2.93 4.4 2.16
2.99 4.28 2.04

Latest Results

04.03.26 New Jersey Devils – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4:3 penalties
02.03.26 Toronto Maple Leafs – Philadelphia Flyers – 2:3 penalties
28.02.26 Toronto Maple Leafs – Ottawa Senators – 2:5
26.02.26 Florida Panthers – Toronto Maple Leafs – 5:1
25.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4:2		 03.03.26 Minnesota Wild – Tampa Bay Lightning – 5:1
28.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Buffalo Sabres – 2:6
26.02.26 Carolina Hurricanes – Tampa Bay Lightning – 5:4
25.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4:2
05.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Florida Panthers – 6:1

Facts

  • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.
  • Toronto is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
  • Tampa Bay has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 73:64. (average 3.7:3.2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:30. (average 3.6:3).

    Latest Head To Head

    25.02.26 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4:2
    08.12.25 Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning – 2:0
    09.04.25 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 3:4 OT
    20.01.25 Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning – 5:3
    30.11.24 Tampa Bay Lightning – Toronto Maple Leafs – 3:5

    Standings

    Main

    Western Conference

    Pl W WO LO L Pts
    1 Colorado Avalanche 60 38 3 9 10 230:149 91
    2 Dallas Stars 61 31 7 9 14 212:165 85
    3 Minnesota Wild 62 23 13 10 16 209:180 82
    4 Vegas Golden Knights 62 21 8 14 19 205:197 72
    5 Anaheim Ducks 61 20 14 3 24 205:212 71
    6 Utah Mammoth 61 25 7 4 25 193:169 68
    7 Edmonton Oilers 62 22 8 8 24 220:210 68
    8 Seattle Kraken 61 23 6 9 23 173:179 67
    9 San Jose Sharks 59 18 12 4 25 186:207 64
    10 Los Angeles Kings 60 15 9 14 22 155:179 62
    11 Nashville Predators 61 20 7 8 26 179:210 62
    12 Winnipeg Jets 60 20 4 10 26 171:186 58
    13 Chicago Blackhawks 61 18 5 10 28 163:195 56
    14 Calgary Flames 60 20 4 7 29 149:181 55
    15 St. Louis Blues 61 22 1 9 29 159:210 55
    16 Vancouver Canucks 61 12 6 7 36 157:230 43

    Eastern Conference

    Pl W WO LO L Pts
    1 Carolina Hurricanes 61 29 10 6 16 214:175 84
    2 Tampa Bay Lightning 59 29 9 4 17 210:158 80
    3 Buffalo Sabres 61 30 6 6 19 209:183 78
    4 Detroit Red Wings 62 24 11 7 20 185:187 77
    5 Montreal Canadiens 60 22 11 9 18 213:200 75
    6 Pittsburgh Penguins 60 27 4 13 16 204:175 75
    7 New York Islanders 62 23 12 5 22 183:177 75
    8 Boston Bruins 60 26 8 5 21 202:188 73
    9 Columbus Blue Jackets 60 21 10 8 21 192:191 70
    10 Washington Capitals 63 26 5 7 25 199:189 69
    11 Ottawa Senators 60 23 6 9 22 201:193 67
    12 Philadelphia Flyers 60 19 9 11 21 177:188 67
    13 Toronto Maple Leafs 62 19 8 11 24 198:215 65
    14 New Jersey Devils 62 20 11 2 29 160:186 64
    15 Florida Panthers 61 24 6 3 28 186:205 63
    16 New York Rangers 60 14 9 8 29 160:190 54

    NHL Outrights

    1. Colorado Avalanche: 3.95 (21.1%)

    2. Tampa Bay Lightning: 4.88 (17.1%)

    3. Carolina Hurricanes: 6.5 (12.83%)

    4. Vegas Golden Knights: 9.75 (8.55%)

    5. Edmonton Oilers: 12 (6.95%)

    6. Dallas Stars: 15 (5.56%)

    7. Minnesota Wild: 18.5 (4.51%)

    8. Buffalo Sabres: 23.5 (3.55%)

    9. Montreal Canadiens: 33.5 (2.49%)

    10. Utah Mammoth: 33.5 (2.49%)

    11. Detroit Red Wings: 51 (1.63%)

    12. Pittsburgh Penguins: 51 (1.63%)

    13. New York Islanders: 53.5 (1.56%)

    14. Los Angeles Kings: 61 (1.37%)

    15. Washington Capitals: 64 (1.3%)

    16. Anaheim Ducks: 64 (1.3%)

    17. Ottawa Senators: 71 (1.17%)

    18. Florida Panthers: 88.5 (0.94%)

    19. Columbus Blue Jackets: 88.5 (0.94%)

    20. Boston Bruins: 151 (0.55%)

    21. Winnipeg Jets: 251 (0.33%)

    22. Toronto Maple Leafs: 251 (0.33%)

    23. San Jose Sharks: 251 (0.33%)

    24. Seattle Kraken: 251 (0.33%)

    25. Philadelphia Flyers: 276 (0.3%)

    26. Nashville Predators: 301 (0.28%)

    27. New Jersey Devils: 351 (0.24%)

    28. New York Rangers: 1001 (0.08%)

    29. Calgary Flames: 1251 (0.07%)

    30. St. Louis Blues: 1251 (0.07%)

    31. Chicago Blackhawks: 1251 (0.07%)

    32. Vancouver Canucks: 1751 (0.05%)

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