Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar predictions, Apr 27, 2026

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As Stefanos Tsitsipas prepares to face Daniel Merida Aguilar in the upcoming ATP Madrid match on April 27, 2026, both players bring notable recent form to the court. Tsitsipas, the local favorite, has secured victory in 3 of his last 5 matches, showcasing his powerful baseline game and tactical prowess. His experience in high-stakes matches could be a vital advantage on home soil.

On the other hand, Merida Aguilar enters the clash riding a wave of confidence with 4 wins in his last 5 matches. His aggressive style and adept counter-punching make him a formidable opponent, capable of challenging Tsitsipas’s rhythm. The matchup promises a compelling contrast between Tsitsipas’s serve-and-volley tactics and Merida Aguilar’s relentless baseline exchanges.

The bookmakers favor Tsitsipas with odds of 1.49 for a home win, while Merida Aguilar stands at 2.58. According to our model, there is a 65.8% probability of a home victory, with the remainder favoring an away win at 34.2%. Overall, while Tsitsipas holds an edge in recent matchups, both players have the tools to secure a win, making it a match worth watching.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-04-25T22:52:02+00:00.

Tsitsipas 63.4%

Merida Aguilar 36.6%

Watch and Bet Tsitsipas – Merida Aguilar available at: Bet Now (Full Screen)

Betting Odds

	1	X	2
	1.51		2.6
	1.53		2.64	Watch and Bet
	1.49		2.58

Latest Results

25.04.26 Alexander Bublik – Stefanos Tsitsipas – 0:2 23.04.26 Patrick Kypson – Stefanos Tsitsipas – 1:2 15.04.26 Fabian Marozsan – Stefanos Tsitsipas – 2:1 06.04.26 Francisco Cerundolo – Stefanos Tsitsipas – 2:0 04.04.26 Ugo Humbert – Stefanos Tsitsipas – 1:3

25.04.26 Daniel Merida Aguilar – Corentin Moutet – 2:0 23.04.26 Marco Trungelliti – Daniel Merida Aguilar – 1:2 21.04.26 Marco Trungelliti – Daniel Merida Aguilar – 0:2 20.04.26 Billy Harris – Daniel Merida Aguilar – 0:2 12.04.26 Ethan Quinn – Daniel Merida Aguilar – 2:0

Facts

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 80. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 102.

Tsitsipas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merida Aguilar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tsitsipas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Standings

Draw

Singles – Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bye
2	Bonzi B. (Q)	Droguet T. (Q)	2 : 1
3	Moller E. (Q)	Cina F. (WC)	2 : 0
4	Bye	Diallo G. (32)
5	Norrie C. (19)	Bye
6	Machac T.	Comesana F.	2 : 1
7	Bautista-Agut R.	Tirante T. A.	0 : 2
8	Bye	Paul T. (15)
9	Rublev A. (9)	Bye
10	Zhang Z. (PR)	Kopriva V.	0 : 2
11	Sonego L.	Lajovic D. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Rinderknech A. (22)
13	Fonseca J. (27)	Bye
14	Bergs Z.	Cilic M.	1 : 2
15	Jodar R. (WC)	De Jong J.	2 : 1
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (5)
17	Shelton B. (4)	Bye
18	Prizmic D. (Q)	Berrettini M.	2 : 0
19	Basilashvili N. (Q)	Ofner S.	0 : 2
20	Bye	Etcheverry T. M. (25)
21	Fils A. (21)	Bye
22	Buse I.	Mannarino A.	2 : 0
23	Brooksby J.	Nava E.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Vacherot V. (14)
25	Lehecka J. (11)	Bye
26	Tabilo A.	Royer V.	2 : 0
27	Muller A.	Struff J-L.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Michelsen A. (33)
29	Griekspoor T. (29)	Bye
30	Dzumhur D.	Bellucci M.	2 : 0
31	Faria J. (Q)	Hurkacz H.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Musetti L. (6)
33	Bublik A. (8)	Bye
34	Kypson P. (LL)	Tsitsipas S.	1 : 2
35	Trungelliti M. (LL)	Merida Aguilar D. (Q)	1 : 2
36	Bye	Moutet C. (26)
37	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Bye
38	Carreno-Busta P. (WC)	Fucsovics M.	2 : 1
39	Munar J.	Shevchenko A.	2 : 0
40	Bye	Ruud C. (12)
41	Cerundolo F. (16)	Bye
42	Hanfmann Y.	Giron M.	2 : 1
43	Altmaier D.	Cerundolo J. M.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Darderi L. (18)
45	Nakashima B. (28)	Bye
46	Garin C. (LL)	Blockx A.	1 : 2
47	Gaubas V. (Q)	Baez S.	2 : 0
48	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
49	Medvedev D. (7)	Bye
50	Marozsan F.	Quinn E.	2 : 0
51	Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)	Opelka R. (RET.)	0 : 0
52	Bye	Shapovalov D. (31)
53	Tien L. (17)	Bye
54	Vallejo D. (Q)	Dimitrov G.	2 : 0
55	Ugo Carabelli C.	Monfils G. (WC)	2 : 0
56	Bye	Cobolli F. (10)
57	Khachanov K. (13)	Bye
58	Landaluce M. (WC)	Walton A.	0 : 2
59	Popyrin A.	Damm M. (Q)	0 : 2
60	Bye	Mensik J. (23)
61	Humbert U. (30)	Bye
62	Atmane T.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 0
63	Borges N.	Navone M.	0 : 2
64	Bye	Zverev A. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bonzi B. (Q)	2 : 1
2	Moller E. (Q)	Diallo G. (RET.) (32)	1 : 0
3	Norrie C. (19)	Machac T.	2 : 1
4	Tirante T. A.	Paul T. (15)	2 : 0
5	Rublev A. (9)	Kopriva V.	0 : 2
6	Lajovic D.	Rinderknech A. (22)	0 : 2
7	Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)	Cilic M.
8	Jodar R.	De Minaur A. (5)	2 : 0
9	Shelton B. (4)	Prizmic D.	1 : 2
10	Ofner S.	Etcheverry T. M. (25)	0 : 2
11	Fils A. (21)	Buse I.	2 : 1
12	Nava E.	Vacherot V. (14)	2 : 1
13	Lehecka J. (11)	Tabilo A.	2 : 1
14	Struff J-L.	Michelsen A. (33)	0 : 2
15	Griekspoor T. (29)	Dzumhur D.	2 : 0
16	Hurkacz H.	Musetti L. (6)	0 : 2
17	Bublik A. (8)	Tsitsipas S.	0 : 2
18	Merida Aguilar D.	Moutet C. (26)	2 : 0
19	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Carreno-Busta P.	2 : 0
20	Munar J.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 2
21	Cerundolo F. (16)	Hanfmann Y.	2 : 0
22	Cerundolo J. M.	Darderi L. (18)	0 : 2
23	Nakashima B. (28)	Blockx A.	1 : 2
24	Gaubas V.	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)	0 : 2
25	Medvedev D. (7)	Marozsan F.	2 : 1
26	Budkov Kjaer N.	Shapovalov D. (31)	2 : 0
27	Tien L. (17)	Vallejo D.	0 : 2
28	Ugo Carabelli C.	Cobolli F. (10)	1 : 2
29	Khachanov K. (13)	Walton A.	2 : 0
30	Damm M.	Mensik J. (23)	0 : 2
31	Humbert U. (30)	Atmane T.	0 : 2
32	Navone M.	Zverev A. (2)	1 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Moller E.
2	Norrie C. (19)	Tirante T. A.
3	Kopriva V.	Rinderknech A. (22)
4	Fonseca J. (27)	Jodar R.
5	Prizmic D.	Etcheverry T. M. (25)
6	Fils A. (21)	Nava E.
7	Lehecka J. (11)	Michelsen A. (33)
8	Griekspoor T. (29)	Musetti L. (6)
9	Tsitsipas S.	Merida Aguilar D.
10	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Ruud C. (12)
11	Cerundolo F. (16)	Darderi L. (18)
12	Blockx A.	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
13	Medvedev D. (7)	Budkov Kjaer N.
14	Vallejo D.	Cobolli F. (10)
15	Khachanov K. (13)	Mensik J. (23)
16	Atmane T.	Zverev A. (2)

1/8-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8
5	TBD #9	TBD #10
6	TBD #11	TBD #12
7	TBD #13	TBD #14
8	TBD #15	TBD #16

Quarter-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8

Semi-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4

Final

1

TBD #1

TBD #2

ATP Madrid Outrights

1. Sinner Jannik: 1.42 (50.82%)

2. Zverev Alexander: 8.83 (8.18%)

3. Fils Arthur: 14.33 (5.04%)

4. Jodar Rafael: 23.5 (3.07%)

5. Musetti Lorenzo: 26.5 (2.73%)

6. Ruud Casper: 26.5 (2.73%)

7. Auger-Aliassime Felix: 32.17 (2.25%)

8. Medvedev Daniil: 33.17 (2.18%)

9. Cerundolo Francisco: 34 (2.13%)

10. Fonseca Joao: 34 (2.13%)

11. Cobolli Flavio: 35.17 (2.05%)

12. Mensik Jakub: 41 (1.76%)

13. Lehecka Jiri: 42.67 (1.69%)

14. Tsitsipas Stefanos: 53 (1.36%)

15. Prizmic Dino: 75.5 (0.96%)

16. Davidovich Fokina Alejandro: 80.33 (0.9%)

17. Darderi Luciano: 83.67 (0.86%)

18. Khachanov Karen: 94.67 (0.76%)

19. Etcheverry Tomas Martin: 100.33 (0.72%)

20. Vallejo Adolfo Daniel: 105.33 (0.69%)

21. Blockx Alexander: 108.67 (0.66%)

22. Norrie Cameron: 108.67 (0.66%)

23. Rinderknech Arthur: 108.67 (0.66%)

24. Tirante Thiago Agustin: 108.67 (0.66%)

25. Merida Aguilar Daniel: 112.83 (0.64%)

26. Michelsen Alex: 117 (0.62%)

27. Budkov Kjaer Nicolai: 125.33 (0.58%)

28. Griekspoor Tallon: 133.67 (0.54%)

29. Nava Emilio: 133.67 (0.54%)

30. Atmane Terence: 133.67 (0.54%)

31. Kopriva Vit: 150.33 (0.48%)

32. Moller Elmer: 183.67 (0.39%)

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