Derby County vs Leeds United predictions, Jan 11, 2026

Jan 04, 2026 0 Comment By Yuriy Borshchenko

English FA Cup, on Sunday,

Derby

Leeds

Score, Highlights

Short Preview

In this upcoming English FA Cup match, Derby County will face off against Leeds United at home on January 11, 2026.

Both teams have had mixed results in their recent matches, with Derby County winning 2 out of their last 5 games and Leeds United only managing 1 win in the same period.

Looking at the bookmakers’ odds, Leeds United are favored to come out on top with odds of 1.65, compared to Derby County’s odds of 5.27. Our model prediction also supports this, giving Leeds United a 58.7% chance of winning, followed by a 24.6% probability of a draw, and a 17.2% chance of a home win for Derby County. The predicted final score based on the odds is 0:1 in favor of Leeds United.

Tactically, Leeds United will look to capitalize on their recent form and solidify their defense, while Derby County will need to step up their game to overcome the odds. This match has the potential to be a closely contested encounter with both sides having equal chances of success.

This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-01-04T13:52:02+00:00.

Derby
18.3%		 Draw
25.9%		 Leeds
55.9%

Prediction (the most likely score): 0:1

Outrights of English FA Cup Leeds: 0.94% Derby: 0.61%

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Betting Odds

1 X 2
Bwin 4.1 3.4 1.8
betsson 5.4 3.7 1.68
MarathonBet 5.13 3.7 1.66 Watch Watch and Bet
WilliamHill 5 3.5 1.67
Pinnacle 5.42 3.71 1.65
Best for US Customers 5.33 3.5 1.6

Latest Results

04.01.26 Derby County – Wrexham AFC – 1:2
01.01.26 Derby County – Middlesbrough FC – 1:0
29.12.25 Leicester City – Derby County – 2:1
26.12.25 Birmingham City – Derby County – 1:1
20.12.25 Derby County – Portsmouth FC – 1:1		 04.01.26 Leeds United – Manchester United – 1:1
01.01.26 Liverpool FC – Leeds United – 0:0
28.12.25 Sunderland AFC – Leeds United – 1:1
20.12.25 Leeds United – Crystal Palace – 4:1
14.12.25 Brentford FC – Leeds United – 1:1

Facts

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
  • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
  • In this match, Leeds is a strong favorite.
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

    Latest Head To Head

    29.12.24 Derby County – Leeds United – 0:1
    07.12.24 Leeds United – Derby County – 2:0
    19.07.20 Derby County – Leeds United – 1:3
    21.09.19 Leeds United – Derby County – 1:1
    15.05.19 Leeds United – Derby County – 2:4

    Standings

    Draw

    Main

    1/128-finals

    1 Wolves Bye
    3 Sutton AFC Telford 2 : 1
    4 South Shields Shrewsbury 1 : 3
    5 Stevenage Chesterfield 0 : 1
    6 Crewe Doncaster 1 : 2
    8 Bye Southampton
    9 Tottenham Bye
    12 Bye Aston Villa
    13 Port Vale Maldon & Tiptree 5 : 1
    14 Bromley Bristol Rovers 1 : 2
    15 Fleetwood Barnet 2 : 1
    16 Luton Forest Green 4 : 3
    17 Preston Bye
    19 Wigan Hemel Hempstead 2 : 1
    20 Spennymoor Barrow 0 : 2
    21 Ipswich Bye
    23 Blackpool Scunthorpe 1 : 0
    24 Reading Carlisle 2 : 3
    25 Boreham Wood Crawley 3 : 0
    26 Newport Gillingham 3 : 2
    27 Brackley Town Notts Co 3 : 2
    28 Burton St. Albans 6 : 0
    29 Wrexham Bye
    32 Bye Nottingham
    33 Charlton Bye
    36 Bye Chelsea
    37 Manchester City Bye
    39 FC Halifax Exeter 0 : 2
    40 Wycombe Plymouth 2 : 0
    41 West Ham Bye
    44 Bye QPR
    45 Sheffield Wed Bye
    48 Bye Brentford
    49 Fulham Bye
    52 Bye Middlesbrough
    53 Everton Bye
    56 Bye Sunderland
    57 Liverpool Bye
    59 Peterborough Cardiff 1 : 0
    60 Barnsley York City 3 : 2
    61 Burnley Bye
    64 Bye Millwall
    65 Norwich Bye
    67 AFC Wimbledon Gateshead 0 : 2
    68 Eastleigh Walsall 0 : 3
    69 Portsmouth Bye
    72 Bye Arsenal
    73 Derby Bye
    76 Bye Leeds
    77 Swansea Bye
    80 Bye West Brom
    81 Salford Lincoln 2 : 1
    82 Tamworth Leyton Orient 0 : 1
    83 Rotherham Swindon 1 : 2
    84 Bolton Huddersfield 2 : 1
    85 Grimsby Ebbsfleet 3 : 1
    86 Wealdstone Southend 1 : 0
    87 Chelmsford Braintree 4 : 1
    88 Weston-super-Mare Aldershot 2 : 1
    89 Hull Bye
    92 Bye Blackburn
    93 Newcastle Bye
    96 Bye Bournemouth
    97 Colchester MK Dons 2 : 3
    98 Oldham Northampton 3 : 1
    100 Bye Oxford Utd
    101 Cheltenham Bradford City 1 : 0
    102 Buxton Chatham 2 : 1
    104 Bye Leicester
    105 Tranmere Stockport County 1 : 3
    106 Cambridge Utd Chester 3 : 0
    108 Bye Birmingham
    109 Bristol City Bye
    112 Bye Watford
    113 Stoke Bye
    116 Bye Coventry
    117 Slough Altrincham 2 : 1
    118 Macclesfield AFC Totton 6 : 3
    120 Bye Crystal Palace
    121 Manchester Utd Bye
    124 Bye Brighton
    125 Sheffield Utd Bye
    127 Gainsborough Accrington 1 : 2
    128 Mansfield Harrogate 3 : 2

    1/64-finals

    1 Wolves Bye
    2 Sutton Shrewsbury 1 : 2
    3 Chesterfield Doncaster 1 : 2
    4 Bye Southampton
    5 Tottenham Bye
    6 Bye Aston Villa
    7 Port Vale Bristol Rovers 1 : 0
    8 Fleetwood Luton 3 : 2
    9 Preston Bye
    10 Wigan Barrow 3 : 2
    11 Ipswich Bye
    12 Blackpool Carlisle 4 : 1
    13 Boreham Wood Newport 3 : 0
    14 Brackley Town Burton 1 : 3
    15 Wrexham Bye
    16 Bye Nottingham
    17 Charlton Bye
    18 Bye Chelsea
    19 Manchester City Bye
    20 Exeter Wycombe 4 : 0
    21 West Ham Bye
    22 Bye QPR
    23 Sheffield Wed Bye
    24 Bye Brentford
    25 Fulham Bye
    26 Bye Middlesbrough
    27 Everton Bye
    28 Bye Sunderland
    29 Liverpool Bye
    30 Peterborough Barnsley 0 : 1
    31 Burnley Bye
    32 Bye Millwall
    33 Norwich Bye
    34 Gateshead Walsall 0 : 2
    35 Portsmouth Bye
    36 Bye Arsenal
    37 Derby Bye
    38 Bye Leeds
    39 Swansea Bye
    40 Bye West Brom
    41 Salford Leyton Orient 4 : 0
    42 Swindon Bolton 4 : 0
    43 Grimsby Wealdstone 4 : 0
    44 Chelmsford Weston-super-Mare 0 : 2
    45 Hull Bye
    46 Bye Blackburn
    47 Newcastle Bye
    48 Bye Bournemouth
    49 MK Dons Oldham 3 : 1
    50 Bye Oxford Utd
    51 Cheltenham Buxton 6 : 2
    52 Bye Leicester
    53 Stockport County Cambridge Utd 0 : 1
    54 Bye Birmingham
    55 Bristol City Bye
    56 Bye Watford
    57 Stoke Bye
    58 Bye Coventry
    59 Slough Macclesfield 1 : 3
    60 Bye Crystal Palace
    61 Manchester Utd Bye
    62 Bye Brighton
    63 Sheffield Utd Bye
    64 Accrington Mansfield 2 : 3

    1/32-finals

    1 Wolves Shrewsbury
    2 Doncaster Southampton
    3 Tottenham Aston Villa
    4 Port Vale Fleetwood
    5 Preston Wigan
    6 Ipswich Blackpool
    7 Boreham Wood Burton
    8 Wrexham Nottingham
    9 Charlton Chelsea
    10 Manchester City Exeter
    11 West Ham QPR
    12 Sheffield Wed Brentford
    13 Fulham Middlesbrough
    14 Everton Sunderland
    15 Liverpool Barnsley
    16 Burnley Millwall
    17 Norwich Walsall
    18 Portsmouth Arsenal
    19 Derby Leeds
    20 Swansea West Brom
    21 Salford Swindon
    22 Grimsby Weston-super-Mare
    23 Hull Blackburn
    24 Newcastle Bournemouth
    25 MK Dons Oxford Utd
    26 Cheltenham Leicester
    27 Cambridge Utd Birmingham
    28 Bristol City Watford
    29 Stoke Coventry
    30 Macclesfield Crystal Palace
    31 Manchester Utd Brighton
    32 Sheffield Utd Mansfield

    English FA Cup Outrights

    1. Manchester City: 5.55 (10.96%)

    2. Liverpool: 6.05 (10.05%)

    3. Arsenal: 6.45 (9.43%)

    4. Chelsea: 9.1 (6.68%)

    5. Newcastle Utd: 11 (5.53%)

    6. Tottenham: 17 (3.58%)

    7. Manchester United: 17 (3.58%)

    8. Aston Villa: 17 (3.58%)

    9. Brighton: 21 (2.9%)

    10. Bournemouth: 26 (2.34%)

    11. Nottingham: 34 (1.79%)

    12. Crystal Palace: 34 (1.79%)

    13. Everton: 34 (1.79%)

    14. West Ham: 41 (1.48%)

    15. Fulham: 41 (1.48%)

    16. Brentford: 41 (1.48%)

    17. Sunderland: 65 (0.94%)

    18. Wolves: 65 (0.94%)

    19. Leeds: 65 (0.94%)

    20. Burnley: 80 (0.76%)

    21. Ipswich: 100 (0.61%)

    22. Norwich: 100 (0.61%)

    23. Wrexham: 100 (0.61%)

    24. Blackburn: 100 (0.61%)

    25. Hull City: 100 (0.61%)

    26. West Brom: 100 (0.61%)

    27. Stoke City: 100 (0.61%)

    28. Swansea: 100 (0.61%)

    29. Charlton: 100 (0.61%)

    30. Preston: 100 (0.61%)

    31. QPR: 100 (0.61%)

    32. Millwall: 100 (0.61%)

    33. Watford: 100 (0.61%)

    34. Derby: 100 (0.61%)

    35. Oxford Utd: 100 (0.61%)

    36. Middlesbrough: 100 (0.61%)

    37. Sheffield Wed: 100 (0.61%)

    38. Coventry: 100 (0.61%)

    39. Southampton: 100 (0.61%)

    40. Sheffield Utd: 100 (0.61%)

    41. Birmingham: 100 (0.61%)

    42. Bristol City: 100 (0.61%)

    43. Portsmouth: 100 (0.61%)

    44. Leicester: 100 (0.61%)

    45. Wigan: 100 (0.61%)

    46. Hartlepool: 100 (0.61%)

    47. Shrewsbury: 100 (0.61%)

    48. Salford: 100 (0.61%)

    49. Grimsby: 100 (0.61%)

    50. Swindon: 100 (0.61%)

    51. Port Vale: 100 (0.61%)

    52. Exeter: 100 (0.61%)

    53. Fleetwood Town: 100 (0.61%)

    54. Doncaster: 100 (0.61%)

    55. Cheltenham: 100 (0.61%)

    56. Walsall: 100 (0.61%)

    57. Barnsley: 100 (0.61%)

    58. Milton Keynes Dons: 100 (0.61%)

    59. Blackpool: 100 (0.61%)

    60. Burton: 100 (0.61%)

    61. Cambridge Utd: 100 (0.61%)

    62. Mansfield: 100 (0.61%)

    63. Macclesfield: 100 (0.61%)

    64. Forest Green: 100 (0.61%)

    65. Weston-super-Mare: 100 (0.61%)

    66. Boreham Wood: 100 (0.61%)

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