German Bundesliga, on Sunday,
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As FC St. Pauli prepares to host Mainz 05 on May 3, 2026, both teams enter the match with contrasting recent form. St. Pauli has struggled significantly, failing to secure a victory in their last five outings, which places them under increasing pressure as they look to turn their fortunes around. Meanwhile, Mainz 05 has found some rhythm, winning two of their last five matches, giving them a slight edge in confidence heading into this clash.
The bookmakers have set the odds at 2.95 for a home win, 2.44 for an away victory, indicating that they see Mainz as the favorites. An analysis of the teams reveals a tactical mismatch; Mainz’s more effective attacking setups have yielded results recently, while St. Pauli’s defense has been vulnerable, unable to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Our model suggests a probability distribution of 33% for a home win, 30.1% for a draw, and 37.6% favoring an away win. The predicted final score stands at 1-1, highlighting the potential for a tightly contested match. With both teams motivated for points, fans can expect an engaging encounter, though outcomes remain uncertain.
This preview is generated with the Welcome.Bet AI Insights Engine, combining form data, betting odds, and semantic SEO optimization to deliver relevant match analysis for fans and bettors alike from 2026-04-27T03:52:03+00:00.
| St. Pauli 33.7% |
Draw 28.9% |
Mainz 37.4% |
Prediction (the most likely score): 1:1
Watch and Bet St. Pauli – Mainz available at: Bet Now (Full Screen)
Betting Odds
| 1 | X | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
2.75 | 3.25 | 2.55 | |
 |
2.89 | 3.4 | 2.58 | |
 |
2.82 | 3.35 | 2.52 | |
 |
2.92 | 3.4 | 2.64 | Watch and Bet |
 |
2.75 | 3.1 | 2.5 | |
 |
2.82 | 3.32 | 2.53 |
Latest Results
| 25.04.26 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 – FC St. Pauli – 2:0 17.04.26 FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Köln – 1:1 11.04.26 FC St. Pauli – Bayern Munich – 0:5 05.04.26 Union Berlin – FC St. Pauli – 1:1 22.03.26 FC St. Pauli – SC Freiburg – 1:2 |
25.04.26 Mainz 05 – Bayern Munich – 3:4 19.04.26 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Mainz 05 – 1:1 16.04.26 RC Strasbourg – Mainz 05 – 4:0 12.04.26 Mainz 05 – SC Freiburg – 0:1 09.04.26 Mainz 05 – RC Strasbourg – 2:0 |
Facts
Latest Head To Head
| 21.12.25 Mainz 05 – FC St. Pauli – 0:0 22.02.25 Mainz 05 – FC St. Pauli – 2:0 05.10.24 FC St. Pauli – Mainz 05 – 0:3 |
Standings
2025/26
| Pl | W | D | L | Diff | Pts | |||
| 1 | Bayern Munich ✔ | 31 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 113:32 | 81 | 82 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 65:31 | 34 | 67 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62:38 | 24 | 62 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 63:43 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 61:45 | 16 | 57 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 62:42 | 20 | 55 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 56:58 | -2 | 43 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 44:52 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 39:55 | -16 | 37 |
| 10 | Mainz | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 39:49 | -10 | 34 |
| 11 | B. Monchengladbach | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 36:50 | -14 | 32 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 36:54 | -18 | 32 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 35:55 | -20 | 32 |
| 14 | FC Koln | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 45:53 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 31 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 26:53 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 41:66 | -25 | 25 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 31 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 35:66 | -31 | 22 |
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